Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season/Paloma
17L.PALOMA AoI: SW Caribbean Now, the lull is over. I was about to post this earlier because most models predicted development, but now it's at medium-risk on NHC TWO. Could drift northwest, then north, then northeast. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:46, 2 November 2008 (UTC) :Wow, quite a turnaround. A couple days ago, the whole planet was deader than Elvis, now we've got Polo in the EPAC and this little guy in the Caribbean. This one, however, is gonna have to stay stationary for a little while longer because it's running out of water. That North American continent is looming like the Grim Reaper. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:13, 3 November 2008 (UTC) 93L.INVEST NRL's calling it 93L. NHC says that it is nearly stationary, and that "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." We'll see. --Patteroast 08:24, 3 November 2008 (UTC) :The GFDL and HWRF have both had strong storms in their recent runs, although the most recent GFDL quits while the storm is still 56 knots (as in, the GFDL has the system remaining stationary over the Honduras, which is really bad). The SHIPS model has not been very active on the system. Most models have picked up the system and done something with it. The strangest model is the NAM, which goes insane and makes a very-intense Paloma in the middle of the Caribbean. Squarethecircle 18:28, 3 November 2008 (UTC) ::HWRF delveops a strong cat. 2! 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:14, 3 November 2008 (UTC) :::Um... HWRF and GFDL are both showing a cat. 3 landfall on Cuba, now. Strangely enough, I checked CMC to see what crazy stuff it did with it, but it doesn't seem to recognize it at all. --Patteroast 07:40, 4 November 2008 (UTC) ::::HWRF is suggesting a major hurricane strike on Haiti! 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:38, 4 November 2008 (UTC) :::::Up to high risk. And a recon. Storm's Eye 13:27, 5 November 2008 (UTC) "SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." Oh dear. Only two of several models don't give this one a name and given the forecast track, its easy to see why they would think that. HWFI is going nuts with this one, taking it to 105 kts in just 84 hrs, but it's the outlier. Most take it to between 50 and 80 kts. This season is already one of the most active on record, and a Paloma would bring 2008's total to 17 (counting the SC storm in Sep. that ''should get upgraded in postanalysis). 17 would make it the sixth most active season on record by itself (after 2005, 1933, 1887, 1995, 1969). -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:36, 5 November 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Seventeen Official from NHC. Forecast to become a hurricane in 48 hours... --Patteroast 21:17, 5 November 2008 (UTC) :The NHC are taking it a wee bit conservative here. They don't want to get this one wrong - however, even considering using the SHIPS model at this point is absolutely nuts. The SHIPS model does not take into account at all the anti-cyclone that will be present over the system and the good sea surface temperatures that it will be encountering - thus, the SHIPS may be biasing the NHC's prediction more towards the conservative side. The HWRF and GFDL might be considered too bullish, but both have done much, much better than the statistical models this year, and, in my opinion, to go 25 knots off them must mean that the NHC is not completely confident on any specific forecast (which is not unlikely - a major in November? They can't get behind something so absurd unless they really know that that's how it's going to be). Squarethecircle 22:10, 5 November 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Paloma And now we have her. Storm's Eye 08:50, 6 November 2008 (UTC) ::This looks to be heading straight for Cuba, and it could be a cat 3 or (god forbid) a cat 4 when it reaches the coast. Dear god Cuba has been absolutely battered this year! The weather gods have been very unkind to the Caribbean. With an anticyclone developing over the system, very warm SSTs, and low shear, conditions are very unusually favorable for early November and this thing has the potential to develop into a monster. Let's just hope that this doesn't happen, or that if it does it gets sheared apart before reaching Cuba and we have a nice pretty storm over the middle of the Caribbean that doesn't hit land at full strength. But right now this looks pretty unlikely. Bob rulz 09:52, 6 November 2008 (UTC) :::A 16-8-5 season would be incredible. But you're right - Cuba cannot take this much abuse. Already, around 5 billion dollars in damage has been done to Cuba in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, and with another potential major coming their way, it's not looking good for the Cubans right now. Hopefully the loss of life will stay down, and Paloma will turn out to be just a weak hurricane and hit an unpopulated area. That's the best we can really hope for at the moment. And yes, Bob, I agree, the synoptic set up is not looking good for Cuba, even this late in the year. For one unlucky moment, an anticyclone has set up a nearly shear-less environment for Paloma - the fifth major of the season is not out of reach. SSTs are not a factor in preventing development - they are plenty warm enough to support a category three or four storm. Dry air has not yet come into play - but with the moisture in the area and the anti-cyclone present, that may not be a threat to the integrity of the storm. On the subject, by the way, how many November majors have their been? I know Lenny as the big name, but what other monsters have sprung up at this time of year? Squarethecircle 13:26, 6 November 2008 (UTC) ::::Should be 17-8-5. That thing that hit South Carolina back in September was at the very least subtropical. Paloma's looking ugly right now. I can almost see an eye starting to form and it hasn't even begun to fight yet. That shear increase in about 60-84 hrs could end up being rather timely for Cuba. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:24, 6 November 2008 (UTC) :::::Strengthening steadily, shouldn't take too much longer to become a hurricane. As for similar November storm, in 2001 Hurricane Michelle formed around the same time, in the same place, had a similar track, and made a cat. 4 landfall in Cuba and was retired... --Patteroast 18:41, 6 November 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Paloma Wow, that was a bit quicker than expected. Check out that eye, though! That thing wasn't there even half an hour ago! Pretty impressive. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 00:01, 7 November 2008 (UTC) :Wow, that's amazing. I think this will indeed become a cat. 3. Remember that rapid strengthening still can occur at this time of year, and Omar was predicted to strengthen only to cat. 2 just like this one, and it became a cat. 3/4. This season is indeed a true record breaker. GFDL gives Grand Cayman Island category four winds, so anyone in the path of this storm should prepare. What an irony, "Paloma" means dove in Spanish! Also, that storm in North Carolina back in September might not be the only one, there's this subtropical-looking storm near New England, it has an eye and symmetry, and it might be a warm seclusion (see below), and you could probably find better images than I can, but the only thing that system lacks in becoming tropical is warmer water and colder cloud tops. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:14, 7 November 2008 (UTC) ::Just as a note, the NHC are more liberal with awarding storm status these days - if a storm isn't listed, and you think it's subtrop or trop, you can give up hope right there and then. It appears that Paloma is undergoing a stint of rapid intensification - it could easily become a major at this rate. I somehow doubt that the storm will last long enough to intensify to a category four, but it is recognized that a major hurricane is quite possible (and may be likely) at this point in time. In my opinion, it shouldn't be a question - the dynamical models, set-up, and the current intensification trend all point to a category 3 hurricane. Unfortunately, Cuba should bear the brunt of the landfall - closing out what is already their worst year in terms of storms in recent memory. Squarethecircle 01:44, 7 November 2008 (UTC) :::Jesus, that is all bad. 40 to 65 knots in 10 hrs is not good. At that rate, it could be a Category 4 by tomorrow afternoon, and as some of you may know, I'm not given to apocryphal predictions. This one's smelling way to much like Michelle in 2001. Small little bitch, but that's not going to make Cuba feel much better. They better hope that shear arrives before Paloma kicks the shit out of them. Damn, I tell you just when you think the season's over stuff like this happens. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:20, 7 November 2008 (UTC) ::::Here we are, at the end of one of the most unreasonably damaging seasons of all time, as well as one of the more active ones. All four of this season's majors could be category four hurricanes (as noted by the NHC in their discussions for Bertha), and we could be set up to tie the record of 5 category four hurricanes in a single year (though this is quite unlikely). A complete reversal of the last two seasons - the ACE was well above the mean, all three categories were well above the average, and the United States was hammered, as was Cuba and Hispaniola. We are close to having a major in each of five consecutive months, which is a record that will almost certainly never be broken. Tracy's record for the smallest maximum wind field based on gale force winds was demolished by tropical storm Marco, which for all practical purposes barely even existed. 2008 kept up with last year in terms of depression to hurricane strengthening - multiple times we have come close to or about tied Lorenzo's record. As Paloma threatens a hurricane-ransacked Cuba, I can say one thing for sure - this is a season we should not, cannot, forget. Squarethecircle 03:47, 7 November 2008 (UTC) On a more Paloma related note, a small eye has formed, and Paloma could very well continue to intensify at this rate. AF301 is on route, so we should have the storm's intensity in not too long. Squarethecircle 04:12, 7 November 2008 (UTC) :On the same note, our friends at NHC now forecast Paloma to become Major #5 by tomorrow morning.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:11, 7 November 2008 (UTC) ::Paloma now looks much more organized, with a very well defined structure and a clearing eye. Recon is in the storm, and their reports continue to be higher, so it may be just this evening that Paloma becomes a major hurricane. Squarethecircle 20:58, 7 November 2008 (UTC) :::Now a cat. 2. The models are massively dissagreeing on what will happen after it hits the Caymans, some models predict it to affect Florida or enter the Gulf, but it should have been weakened and sheared by then. Most models are hinting that its remnants, if there's anything left, could affect S. Ontario. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:47, 7 November 2008 (UTC) ::::It's November. Once Paloma leaves Cuba, it will be totally obliterated by the intense shear that is associated with the November jet stream. Though the models may be correct in that it would turn around after exiting Cuba, it will not exist long enough to make that turn. In other words, the point is completely moot. Squarethecircle 22:17, 7 November 2008 (UTC) A pinhole eye has developed, and the rate of intensification is almost significant enough (not sure) to attain the label of "explosive intensification". Derek Ortt, who you may or may not know, depending on your associations, states that the satellite presentation is similar to that of a category 4 (quote from post on Storm2k). Update at 23:20, 7 November 2008 (UTC), recon has reported multiple 100+ knot SFMR readings. Squarethecircle 23:16, 7 November 2008 (UTC) :Grand Cayman is getting beat to hell. That northern eyewall is due ashore in a couple hours. If anything, Paloma's rate of intensification has picked up. This thing will just not stop. Paloma's living rather dangerously, cruising along the edge of oblivion, with 45 knot shear just a step to its west. It's almost like she's laughing in the face of danger. November hurricanes tend to be somewhat gung-ho. Now its a major hurricane and I don't think it's going to stop until that shear or Cuba or both make it stop. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:52, 7 November 2008 (UTC) Major Hurricane Paloma Actually, Grand Cayman is only getting TS winds because of the extremely small wind radius of the storm. Satellite presentation continues to improve - this storm is bombing out. Squarethecircle 23:53, 7 November 2008 (UTC) :Crap, I think this storm might turn out to be quite a bit stronger than was initially thought. Certainly, the season will end with a gigantic freaking bang. On another note, since the storm is rapidly deepening, the shear might not even be able to get to the core before the storm makes landfall on Cuba, although since it is traveling extremely slowly it probably will weaken somewhat. It all depends on how strong Paloma becomes - and I would not put a November record out of the question. T-numbers are now 6.0 - equivalent to a category 4 hurricane, though since the winds had not caught up as of the last recon report, they will probably not go over 110 knots, if that (thought they will certainly increase to at least 105 knots). I fear for the Cubans - I mean, just when they thought the year was freaking over... Squarethecircle 01:13, 8 November 2008 (UTC) ::I am surprised at the NHC, and actually sort of disgusted. Recon data was received hours ago while the storm was undergoing extraordinarily rapid intensification, and satellite images have much improved from then. I think the NHC will be in for a "Surprise" when the 1 AM recon gets in (which reminds me, how are they going to do that update? The recon will be simultaneous with the intended release time of the 10A advisory, so it will be hard to maneuver that around so they release the best possible data - my thinking is the intention for potential 1:15 special advisory. And, for the first time ever, I am staying up until one o' clock for a tropical cyclone.) Squarethecircle 03:14, 8 November 2008 (UTC) :::Up to 105 knots and not long after I said Grand Cayman was getting beat to hell, a journalist on the island phoned into the Weather Channel reporting 80 mph wind gusts despite the eyewall being at least an hour away. I have never seen a storm undergo two seperate periods of rapid intensification in such a short span like this. It really hasn't slowed down since it reached tropical storm strength. This is pretty incredible. Paloma's picking off the Caymans one by one. Little Cayman and Cayman Brac are next. And Square, seeing as the November record is 155 mph (Lenny), I would put it out of the question based simply on time. And 1 am? Are you serious? That's a normal night for me. I stayed up until at least 3:30...CDT...watching Ike come ashore (and boy was it worth it). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 08:02, 8 November 2008 (UTC) Urgh! *000 *WTNT62 KNHC 081009 *TCUAT2 *HURRICANE PALOMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE *NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 *508 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 SHORTLY BEFORE 500 AM EST...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT '''MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE PALOMA HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH...215 KM/HR. PALOMA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. This is supposed to be NOVEMBER! Jake52 10:28, 8 November 2008 (UTC) :Dude, Eric, cut me some slack, I'm 14! I had trouble staying up until 2 last night with caffeine. Also, seeing as Paloma's intensity has not matched its T-numbers (which were suggesting Paloma could have continued intensifying to beyond 120 knots significantly earlier last night), Paloma has no window to make the strongest storm of the season, let alone Lenny - in not too many hours, shear should stop intensification entirely (and, depending on the strength of the core at that time, begin to rapidly reverse it). Regardless - the storm is still intensifying, and it could get a little stronger if that trend continues. Also- this is really a beautiful storm for 115 knots, check out the visible! Best looking November storm since Lenny at the same wind speed. Squarethecircle 13:40, 8 November 2008 (UTC) :(edit conflict)Wow. I'm totally shocked. Not only has Palmoa set an all-time record for the 2008 season (a major in 5 separate months), now it could potentially even become a cat. 5, as some WeatherUnderground members are predicting. If the storm survives land and shear, it could affect Florida. If you wanted to see some of the biggest hurricane surprises of your life, it'd be 2008, not 2005. If you are in the path of this storm, pray. Models are now diverging on its possible path, at the worst time possible. Slow-moving storms are notoriously hard to predict, and this is a slow-moving storm. CMC predicts it to miss Cuba altogether and hit Tampa Bay...always the outlier. However, anything is possible at this point. Maybe I was right in predicting an impossibly active and devastating season. I will be watching the 10 am advisory, which comes out in about an hour, VERY closely. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:50, 8 November 2008 (UTC) ::Hehe, those Wundies don't know what they're talking about. It maybe had a shot 8 hours ago IF and ONLY IF you were going solely by T-numbers (which have stayed on a similar level since then). Oh, BTW, the most recent 8 o' clock VDM has the storm at 939 hPa, 134 knot flight wind, and a somewhat suspicious 128 knot SFMR reading (since the area from which this measurement was taken did not have nearly as strong winds at the flight level). And now up to 120 knots, as per the seven o' clock 12A update (plus 943 hPa pressure). Squarethecircle 14:06, 8 November 2008 (UTC) :::Recon suggests that, though not finding the strongest winds, and missing the eye, Paloma has peaked - Cuba can only hope that the ERC and shear gets to it before landfall. Squarethecircle 16:26, 8 November 2008 (UTC) ::::Update - recon supports a storm with winds between 105 and 110 knots, which, give the trend that is occurring, appears to be very good news for the Cubans. Squarethecircle 17:27, 8 November 2008 (UTC) Update - Nevermind, NOAA3 just found 134 knot flight level winds, about 120 knots at the surface. SFMR was not available during the pass. Squarethecircle 17:37, 8 November 2008 (UTC) :On same eyewall pass, outbound, unflagged SFMR supported the 120 knot value - Paloma has bottomed out, but the ERC (the most likely cause of the small amount of weakening in terms of pressure) has not yet begun to affect its intensity. Cuba still has several hours for weakening, but any hope of a non-major at landfall now appears to be thrown out of the window. Squarethecircle 17:50, 8 November 2008 (UTC) ::At this point, there's pretty much nothing I can say that is cheery in regards to the situation faced by the Cubans. If this is another 1932, they're just completely and utterly screwed. Squarethecircle 20:54, 8 November 2008 (UTC) :::Well, this would be the worst hurricane in this area of Camaguey since King of 1950 but if it was a cat. 4 at landfall then the worst since the great hurricane of 1932. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:32, 8 November 2008 (UTC) ::::110 knot landfall - Cuba got away with a BCS, but 110 knots, even weakening, is going to hurt. Now we have to go through the long and painful process of waiting for damage reports to come out - surely, they can't be good. Squarethecircle 00:35, 9 November 2008 (UTC) :::::Wind gusts of 155 mph reported in Cuba! That would rank among the ten greatest surface gusts ever officially recorded on land during a hurricane. Sustained winds reported in the ninetys. This is one hell of a storm. I agree that the destruction in Cuba could be quite severe. There are already reports of significant damage coming in. However, Cuba has seen some of the Atlantic Basin's most catastrophic storms (the 1932 storm killed 3,100 people; Flora killed around 1,800 in 1963) so Cuba is nothing if not experienced. That said, I'm not expecting good news when I wake up tomorrow morning. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:43, 9 November 2008 (UTC) God, I'm ashamed of myself. It's been so quiet for so long that even though I knew about this monstrous November storm, I wasn't keeping close track of it. In fact, I forgot about it for the second day in a row until I saw the news article about Paloma making landfall in Cuba. *shakes head* Normally I would be plying the storm2k boards looking up every ounce of information on the storm and tracking its every move and would be on here making periodic comments about how amazing and horrible it is, yet I forget about it! Bah. And on another note, could this year possibly be any worse for Cuba? What's next, uber December cat 5 monster? Bob rulz 09:20, 9 November 2008 (UTC) :Jeesh, then we'd know the end is near. That doesn't even happen in the West Pacific but once every blue moon (like thrice in 50 years). Paloma was incredible. It just kept getting stronger and stronger and stronger. I weakened a bit before landfall though, which appears to have made the difference. The Atlantic likes to wait until we're not looking to something earthshattering. And dear God go to bed! 09:20 UTC is 2:20 am in Salt Lake City. I'm batshit crazy and even I don't stay up that late on a weeknight. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:02, 11 November 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Paloma (Second shot) Dropped to a Cat 1. Storm's Eye 09:46, 9 November 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Paloma (Second shot) Down again. Storm's Eye 12:38, 9 November 2008 (UTC) :Winds over 155 mph were apparently recorded in the Caymans. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:58, 9 November 2008 (UTC) ::Cuba too. ATL record though is 180 ('38 Long Island Express). West Pacific has reportedly sniffed 200. Just another one of a long list of reasons why I love the West Pacific. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 05:07, 11 November 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Paloma (technically first time) Now downgraded to a tropical depression - it looks like Paloma will not make it through the day. Squarethecircle 20:40, 9 November 2008 (UTC) Remnant low Yes she is. Storm's Eye 15:34, 10 November 2008 (UTC) :Burst of convection over the COC, which is now near small cayman and moving W. Not saying it'll develop as its in some reallllllly dry air but there is a dry high over it. 5% chance. -Winter123 08:04, 12 November 2008 (UTC) ::5% is too high by several orders of magnitude. Shear has already set in - this storm has no chance in any way of redeveloping. Squarethecircle 20:39, 12 November 2008 (UTC) :::Remnants currently making landfall at that point of the FL panhandle. Amazing its still recognizable after like 6 days of 40kt shear and 2 days over cuba. Nasty Nor-easter or something hot on its heels. -Winter123 07:58, 14 November 2008 (UTC)